دراسة تحليلية و قياسية لمعدلات البطالة في دول المغرب العربي في الفترة 2000-2016

Abstract

Unemployment is currently one of the biggest problems of a contemporary era and is manifested by a considerable number of countries worldwide, which vary according to levels of progress and the socio-economic and political systems that have imbalances in the job marker. This was the prime motivation to undertake the present research. The analysis of the existing theories on unemployment revealed a difference between economists when interpreting unemployment. Thismay be due to the rapid dynamics and random changes that occur in the labor market.Further, when analyzing the unemployment in the Arab Maghreb countries, the study found that the unemployment rates are very high among young people under the age of 30 years, and that the most important reasons for the aggravation of this problem is due to intervention in the normal functioning of the market, especially with regard to the government intercession to ensure a minimum wage; in addition, educational and training qualities do not correspond to labor marketrequirements, while technological progress has a further negative impact on the increase of unemployment The study, by examining the unemployment rate in the Arab Maghreb countries during the study period 2000_2016 through quantitative,infernal, and econometric approaches, found that the unemployment rates are very affected by the GDP, because it explains the dynamics of the temporal evolution of unemployment rates in these countries. The results showed that the time series is stable with the first differences using a ljing box test that depends on the self-partial and partial correlation coefficients and the AugmentedDicky Fuller test, and that the unemployment rates are directly linked to the earlier values which are economically acceptable, since the number of unemployees is currently calculated as the sum of previous years' stock of unemployed persons, as well as the number of job seekers who are not employed in the current year, according to VAR models. Furthermore, when using the panel data, it was found that the appropriate model for this study is the FEM model for the individual specificity of each Maghreb country. The study concluded that there is no relationship between the integration of the variables through the integration tests301 Asynchronous pedroni , when unemployment rates are predicted in 2025, unemployment rates will rise in Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania, and will decrease in all Libya and Tunisia compared to current unemployment rates .