أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على الميزان التجاري

Abstract

This study aims to find out the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the balance of the Algerian trade balance, in light of the currency devaluation policy that Algeria has recently adopted. Taking into account the characteristics of the Algerian trade sector, which is characterized by the fact that more than 97%from full exports are hydrocarbons and denominated in US dollars and about two-thirds of imports come from the European Union and priced in Euros, as this costs the cost of the differences between currencies. Through our study, the standard method was used to study the impact of exchange rate and oil price changes on the trade balance using the self-regression model of the distributed time delay. As the study found that there is a direct contaction between the exchange rate and oil prices on the trade balance, and this is a result of the nature of Algerian foreign trade, which depends mainly on hydrocarbons.